It Began with the Merchants Before It Expanded… Will the Protests in Iran Lead to the Fall of the Regime?

Chants that no one previously dared to voice are echoing through the streets of Tehran these days, including “Death to the dictator,” shouted by protesters against the deteriorating economic conditions in the country, declaring their inability to endure the pressures they now face on a daily basis. Will the protests that began with merchants and were later joined by university students and broader segments of society lead to the fall of the regime?

The cries of protesters across Iran have risen to unprecedented levels over the deterioration of living conditions, amid a record surge in prices that has driven many segments of society to take to the streets, starting on December 27, 2025, and continuing to this day. Among them are merchants, employees, and university students, expressing their anger at economic conditions that successive governments have failed to address.

The voices of protesters are now being heard in dozens of cities across the country, reflecting anger and despair resulting from the major collapse of the Iranian rial against the US dollar, which reached 1,440,000 rials per dollar—a collapse that continues under US and European sanctions imposed on the country.

This popular movement is accompanied by fears within the authorities that it could turn into a comprehensive civil disobedience with overtly political slogans, which may push the regime to respond violently as it has on similar occasions. Security forces targeted participants in the Mahsa Amini / Jina Amini protests that erupted in mid-September 2022, opening fire on them in the streets, imprisoning many, subjecting them to torture, and issuing death sentences against some.

Mahsa Amini, or in Kurdish Jina Amini, was a 22-year-old Iranian Kurdish woman from the city of Saqqez in Kurdistan Province. According to Amnesty International, she was arrested by the morality police (Gasht-e Ershad), which detains women who do not comply with mandatory hijab laws, and was severely beaten, later dying as a result.

The late-December 2025 protests are primarily driven by economic factors. Economic observers confirm that food prices rose by 72 percent following the collapse of the Iranian rial, which reached an unprecedented low on December 27, 2025, at 1,400,000 rials per dollar.

Political activists expect the protests to expand significantly across the country, especially as indicators suggest that the Iranian regime has lost much of its former strength and prestige due to economic sanctions and the war it fought during 2025 against Israel.

They also expect security forces to confront protesters with force, a process that has already begun in some cities such as Lordegan in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province in southwestern Iran, where live ammunition led to the death of at least two protesters on the first Thursday of January 2026.

Latest Developments: Deaths and American Threats

Protests have expanded to include 32 different cities across Iran, according to activists and security sources. The independent Iranian news agency HRANA reported at least seven deaths and 33 injuries, most of them in the past two days, while the number of detainees reached 119. Iranian opposition sources, however, speak of multiples of that number.

Amid escalating violence, US President Donald Trump warned Iran against killing peaceful protesters. On Friday (January 2, 2026), he said:

“If Iran opens fire and violently kills peaceful protesters, as it is accustomed to doing, the United States will come to their aid. We are on full alert and ready to act.”

The Iranian response to the American warning regarding possible military intervention came swiftly. Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said in a post on X:

“We consider the positions of protesting businessmen separate from saboteurs. Trump must know that American intervention in this internal issue constitutes destabilization of the security of the entire region and US interests. The American people should know that Trump is the one who began this adventure—his soldiers should beware.”

Highlighting the scale of systematic violence against opponents in Iran, the human rights organization Iran Human Rights announced that Iranian authorities executed at least 1,500 people in 2025, noting an “unprecedented” rise in executions.

Mahmoud Amiri, director of the Norway-based organization, said:

“This is unprecedented in the past 35 years. Since Iran Human Rights was founded, we have never seen such numbers,” describing the situation as “extremely alarming.”

Runaway Inflation

Economic analyst Arman Mohammadi explains the causes of inflation in his country:

“With the Islamic Revolution of 1978, Iran positioned itself from the outset in a camp hostile to the West and what politicians describe as imperialism, in addition to openly declaring its desire to eliminate Israel. This led to the severing of trade and political relations with most of the world.”

He notes that the nuclear program triggered “a wave of severe sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union,” adding that domestic Iranian politics also contributed to worsening inflation.

All of this resulted, he says, in the depreciation of the Iranian currency against the dollar, budget deficits, uncontrolled money printing, loss of currency value, and poor financial and economic management. Sanctions on oil and foreign trade further fueled “economic collapse.”

He believes inflation has caused not only economic problems but also widespread social and political crises, tearing apart Iran’s social fabric.

“Looking at people’s conditions in Iran, one might say that the discontent is mostly economic, but it goes much deeper; economics is merely the tip of the iceberg.”

He lists the reasons protesters took to the streets: social injustice, corruption, nepotism, social pressure, and the erosion of hope. Protesters express this through chants calling for the fall of the Islamic Republic and regime change.

Among the chants:

“Death to the dictator,” “Death to Khamenei,” “Death to the rule of the jurist,” “This year is the year of blood, overthrow Sayyid Ali,” “Reformist or hardliner—the game is over,”

“Poverty, corruption, high prices—we will continue until the regime falls,”

“No Gaza, no Lebanon, my life for Iran,”

“Oil money is gone, spent on Russia,”

“Incompetent official, resign,”

“Reza Shah, may God have mercy on you,”

and “Shameless, shameless.”

Protest Map

The protest map includes Tehran, Isfahan, Mashhad, Shiraz, Hamadan, Karaj, Kermanshah, Qeshm, and Arak. Numerous videos circulated on social media show students protesting deteriorating conditions, including footage from December 30, 2025, showing Shahid Beheshti University students chanting “Death to the dictator.”

Videos also revealed the notable participation of merchants and businessmen, showing the protests are no longer limited to students and the poor. Students at Sharif University of Technology chanted slogans such as “No Gaza, no Lebanon, my life for Iran” and “Death to the rule of the jurist,” as well as “This is not the final battle, Pahlavi will return.” Beheshti University students also chanted “Basij, army—you are our ISIS” as Basij forces advanced carrying Islamic Republic flags.

The Role of the Bazaar

By December 30, 2025—three days after protests began—it became clear that merchants, known in Iran as the bazaar, had the loudest voice. This development is described as historic, given the bazaar’s longstanding alliance with the authorities and its pivotal role in supporting the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The protests began on Saadi Street in central Tehran and in the Shoush neighborhood near the Grand Bazaar, areas historically tied to conservative merchant elites loyal to the regime.

According to a Tehran wholesale trader contacted by the report’s author, bazaar merchants played a decisive role in the 1979 revolution, even chartering the plane that returned Ayatollah Khomeini to Iran on February 1, 1979.

“But after 46 years,” he said, “the Islamic Republic has alienated its oldest and most important social base. For today’s Iranian merchant, that alliance is over, and business has become a losing game.”

Most merchants are now trapped in deep debt and severe liquidity shortages, unable to sell goods as even the middle class can no longer afford purchases, causing market stagnation.

Kurds Watching with Caution

As protests continue, Kurdish opposition forces are closely monitoring developments before deciding whether to mobilize. Activists say no Kurdish calls for participation have yet been issued.

Three Kurdish opposition parties issued statements supporting strikes and protests. The Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) expressed support, stating that Iranian peoples have demanded freedom and democracy since the Mahsa Amini protests.

The Iranian Kurdistan Democratic Party stated that rampant inflation and catastrophic price rises have exhausted the population’s capacity to endure. Komala described the protests as “legitimate.”

A Powerless Regime—Is This the End?

Mehrad Jahanpour (a pseudonym), an Iranian analyst, recalls that late 2017 saw Iran’s first protests of this kind over living costs, including the closure of Tehran’s bazaar.

“Now it is happening again—but with a far deeper currency collapse.”

He argues the situation is beyond the regime’s control and that any reforms are merely tactical painkillers, not strategic solutions.

Future Scenarios

Iranian Kurdish journalist and activist Adnan Hassanpour notes that dissatisfaction in Iran stands at 92 percent. He believes economic collapse is the main driver, exacerbated by sanctions, corruption, and unemployment.

He expects some level of change, similar to the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement, which effectively ended mandatory hijab enforcement.

New Social Freedoms

An Iranian artist from Tehran, speaking under the pseudonym Mohsen Arjmand, says that while social freedoms expanded after the Mahsa Amini protests, people remain dissatisfied due to economic hardship.

Many Losses, No Allies Left

A political source says Iran has suffered repeated defeats and lost key allies across the Middle East, including Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas, leaving Tehran in its weakest position in decades.

Iran has also begun building a 600-kilometer border wall with Iraq in Kurdish regions due to security concerns and fears of PJAK activity and arms smuggling.